Seizing the opportunity

The UK is currently the third largest consumer of ultra-low emission vehicles (ULEV), with the number on Britain’s roads increasing by over 1,700% from 2010-2018. Under the ‘Road to Zero’ strategy set out by the British Government this number is set to grow, with the aim that 50-70% of new vehicles sales will be ULEV by 2030.

Our Director, David Fitzsimons, recently interviewed Steve Hope at Toyotas European HQ and asked how the automaker is preparing for the switch to alternative powertrains, especially now that 62% of Toyotas new car sales include hybrid technology. In reply, Mr Hope indicated that “there is a rapid shift toward Lithium Ion batteries encased increasingly in standardised designs”.

This is indicative of the current thinking on the development of the ULEV market, with electric powertrains very much being the market leader (although some automakers are investing in their own hydrogen fuel cell capability). The ULEV sector is still developing, but in the short term it can be expected that electric powertrain technologies will be the primary choice.

This switch to electric powertrains is increasingly opening up exciting investment opportunities for circular economy advocates, as there is wide scope for circular economy interventions to address the fears that have been raised of the impact of the rapid uptake of electric vehicles (EVs).

Chief among these concerns are the capacity of the national grid to support greater vehicle charging, the availability of critical metals and the end of life (EoL) treatment of EV batteries. For the most part these concerns have been, or at least could be, addressed with the right measures put in place.

National Grid, Ofgem and the House of Commons Business, Energy and Industrial strategy committee have indicated that concerns over increased peak electricity demands and grid reinforcements can largely be alleviated by using flexible charging to allow vehicles to draw power only during off-peak periods. The widescale adoption of EVs using flexible charging meters may even act to smooth the electricity demand on the national grid by creating demand during off-peak periods and potentially by feeding energy back into the grid during peak times.

Concerns have also been raised over the capacity of current infrastructure to deal with the growing numbers of lithium ion vehicle batteries at EoL. These concerns chiefly relate to the safety implications of storing and manually processing EV batteries, as well as the retention of valuable materials for the construction of new batteries. Currently there is still some conjecture over the battery chemistries (or combinations there of) that will ultimately power the EV vehicles of the future. As noted by Toyota’s Steve Hope, the use of lithium ion batteries is expected to expand in the coming years, but there is still room for speculation over the adoption of new battery technologies in the future and need remains for lead acid based batteries, in the medium term at least.

Creating EoL treatment processes that can handle an array of EV battery chemistries will be essential for tackling this growing waste stream. But, as indicated within a recent study led by the University of Birmingham, the creation of standardised batteries which can easily be reused or automatically sorted and disassembled for recycling and remanufacture could help to tackle this problem.

This latter point will be particularly important as the supply of critical metals, such as cobalt and lithium, are expected to be constrained in the near future. The development of new battery chemistries and material recovery processes could certainly go some way towards alleviating these pressures.

Of course, what we have presented here is a very simplistic overview of these issues and implementing the measures required to address each in turn will be no easy task. But we believe there is great potential to maximise the environmental, social and economic benefits from the transition to ULEVs. The application of circular economy design principles, as well as the targeted development and roll out of new infrastructure (e.g. vehicle-grid integration), should support this.

Fortunately, this is not a unique observation and work on this is already underway. An example of which is the Circular Cars Initiative, organised by the World Economic Forum and the World Business Council. This focuses on measures such as improved materials management, design for longevity and advanced remanufacturing as a means for improving the carbon impact of the automotive sector.

The transition to ULEVs has been described by Toyota’s president Akio Toyoda as a “once-in-a-century period of profound transformation” and we are inclined to agree with this statement. In our opinion, the shift towards ultra-low emission vehicles reveal a rare opportunity to design and implement circular economy principles from the outset.